What’s the future of blogging as a mainstream media participant?

Posted by stuart as ,

When I was about twelve years old, my parents gave me a Citizen’s Band (CB) Radio for my birthday, along with a twenty foot aerial which they stuck on the roof of our house.

I thought I was it and a bit! I would lie in my bedroom at night listening to others conversations, occasionally plucking up the courage to enter a channel with a timid “breaker, who’s on channel?”

The response from the people chatting on the channel would usually go something like

Piss off kid, you’re too young to be here…

Those who would allow me into their conversations were usually either kids my age playing with their new toy, or older (read middle aged) enthusiasts, who’d chat with just about anyone.

The thing that struck me after a few weeks of chatting and listening on the CB was that most of the conversations were about…well…chatting on the CB!

It was all we really had in common, and due to the nature of the medium, long term friendships were something that never really came into consideration.

Darren over at problogger has written today about the top 100 blogs at technorati, and the fact that they have an average age of 33.8 months. A closer analysis of this list shows that out of the top thirty, fifteen are about tech/blogging/software.

Just like my early CB’ing experience was pretty much just talking about talking on the CB, a lot of blogs seem to be about well, blogging, and ancilliary things like blog monetisation.

Is this a sign of the immaturity of blogging as a mainstream media platform? I would think that the further that blogging moves away from its roots in the tech-savvy world of geekdom, this number will dwindle. I guess it’s a case of the medium standing on its own as a viable publishing platform, rather than the domain of webmasters and late night haX0rz.

We see blogs occasionally move into the sphere of mainstream media, with blogs such as the Drudge report gaining ground, as well as the use that political conservatives in the US have found as a way to drum up a groundswell of support.

The next five years will see a shakeout, with succesful bloggers either banding together to form alliances (B5 media, and the like), or being bought out by the large existing media organisations, and working for a wage. The lower end bloggers may be left behind, unable to attract an audience other than their friends and family.

Which will you be? Where do you see your blog in five years?